Summary of first results

During the rainy season 2010 in the Ferlo region of Senegal, dynamic maps of risk have been produced and provided to project partners. To validate these maps, a large field campaign was conducted. During this, measures and entomological investigations of animal health were performed in Cattle park witnesses.

A statistical analysis is being conducted to compare the results obtained in these parks to those obtained by modeling. Socio-economic surveys were conducted across Barkedji region to place this study in a largest context of the needs and practices of local people.

On the climate side, it was shown that the determining factor to elaborate risk maps is rainfall and its spatial and temporal variability. Project adaptFVR therefore proposes to study the impact of climate variability (seasonal to low frequency, including trends and climate change) on rainfall and so to the risk prediction. Thus, a statistical distribution from monthly rainfall events and their uncertainties is planned and will be available in a monthly newsletter from 2011. It contains a seasonal forecast, the frequency distribution of rainfall and risk maps of vectors presence. At regional climate change, map of rainfall forecast and trends, including the anthropogenic component, will be issued for the next 150 years.

Through information and statistics collected during this study, it is planned to conduct a study of climate impact on the risk of presence vectors of RVF with the uncertainties associated with the methodologies used.

Predicting areas of livestock exposure to vectors of RVF should then allow developing adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate throughout the day, season and climate change.

The project AdaptFVR will show how these risk maps, original and innovative product, can contribute to the development of health monitoring systems and can be integrated in early warning policy.

For more information, (file in French)

Summary of intermediate report

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